Shimizu S-pulse 4–0 Omiya Ardija: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Omiya Ardija

11/4/2023

J2 League · Round 41IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse56%

×Draw24%

Omiya Ardija20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchOmiya Ardija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.88

Shimizu S-pulse

1.67

Omiya Ardija

0.88

Shimizu S-pulse creates 90% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 146 away

2.02

creates per match

1.12

0.64

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

2.02

Omiya Ardija

1.12

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

0.64

Omiya Ardija

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Omiya Ardija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

80%

Shimizu S-pulse or Omiya Ardija

76%

Draw or Omiya Ardija

44%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

31%

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

81%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

50%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

23%

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals

59%

Omiya Ardija 2+ goals

22%

Omiya Ardija 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

74%

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Omiya Ardija away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Omiya Ardija attack 1.12 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

56%

level

24%

Omiya Ardija scores more

20%

Shimizu S-pulse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff