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Omiya Ardija vs Shimizu S-pulse — J2 League 2018

Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
4/22/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 11NACK5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Omiya Ardija34%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiya Ardija
1.28
Shimizu S-pulse
1.44

Shimizu S-pulse creates 13% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 43 away

creates per match

Omiya Ardija
1.40
Shimizu S-pulse
1.63

allows per match

Omiya Ardija
1.26
Shimizu S-pulse
1.16

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw
59%
Omiya Ardija or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
66%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
15%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
72%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
37%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
14%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
76%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
42%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
45%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more
34%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
41%

Shimizu S-pulse at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omiya Ardija vs Shimizu S-pulse

Shimizu S-pulse beat Omiya Ardija 3-0 in J2 League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at NACK5 Stadium in Saitama.