Shimizu S-pulse 2–2 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Machida Zelvia

Douglas Tanque 84'

K. Kitagawa 66' (pen)

K. Hayashi 67'

T. Nishimura 21'

5/11/2025

J1 League · Round 16IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse34%

×Draw25%

Machida Zelvia41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

Shimizu S-pulse

1.33

Machida Zelvia

1.50

Machida Zelvia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.54

creates per match

1.34

1.67

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.54

Machida Zelvia

1.34

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.67

Machida Zelvia

1.11

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.16scores less

Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

59%

Shimizu S-pulse or Machida Zelvia

75%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

66%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

15%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

74%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

38%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

15%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

78%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

44%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

45%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.54 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

34%

level

25%

Machida Zelvia scores more

41%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

T. Nishimura

Machida Zelvia · F

8.0

Match Events

21'

T. Nishimura↳ Na Sang-Ho

46'

J. Sumiyoshi← K. Haneda

59'

S. Fujio← Na Sang-Ho

59'

M. Duke← Oh Se-Hun

66'

S. Yajima← K. Matsuzaki

66'

K. KitagawaPenalty

67'

K. Hayashi

74'

R. Yamahara← K. Kitazume

78'

H. Nakahara← Z. Uno

78'

Douglas Tanque← K. Kitagawa

82'

H. Shimoda← K. Sento

82'

T. Numata← T. Nishimura

84'

Douglas Tanque↳ Capixaba

90+1'

K. Kuwayama←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuMachida

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots13

1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.21

2Corners3

8Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target5

4Off Target5

5Blocked3

11Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

546Total Passes352

472Accurate Passes268

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia

Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia drew 2-2 in J1 League on May 11, 2025.

Goals: T. Nishimura (21'), K. Kitagawa (66' pen), K. Hayashi (67'), Douglas Tanque (84').

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia