Machida Zelvia 3–0 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

T. Numata 90'

Y. Soma 75' (pen)

R. Kikuchi 14'

7/5/2025

J1 League · Round 23Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia58%

×Draw21%

Shimizu S-pulse20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.11

Machida Zelvia

2.02

Shimizu S-pulse

1.11

Machida Zelvia creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.16

creates per match

1.09

1.14

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

2.16

Shimizu S-pulse

1.09

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.14

Shimizu S-pulse

1.87

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less

Shimizu S-pulse-0.49scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

80%

Machida Zelvia or Shimizu S-pulse

79%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

42%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

35%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

87%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

60%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

33%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

67%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

30%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

74%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.02

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.09 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

58%

level

21%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

20%

Machida Zelvia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Kikuchi

Machida Zelvia · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

R. Kikuchi

29'

Henry Heroki Mochizuki

46'

I. Dresevic← R. Kikuchi

60'

Y. Shimamoto← S. Yajima

69'

Oh Se-Hun← S. Fujio

69'

K. Chiba← K. Kitagawa

69'

Douglas Tanque← T. Inui

74'

Se-hun OhPenalty confirmed

75'

Y. SomaPenalty

79'

H. Nakahara← K. Matsuzaki

79'

M. Nishihara← Capixaba

85'

T. Numata← T. Nishimura

85'

Na Sang-Ho← Y. Soma

90'

R. Shirasaki← H. Shimoda

90'

T. Numata↳ Na Sang-Ho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MachidaShimizu

Overview

36%Possession64%

16Total Shots12

3.14Expected Goals (xG)0.93

2Corners1

14Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target2

5Off Target7

5Blocked3

13Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

281Total Passes502

206Accurate Passes421

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2