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Shimizu S-pulse vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
11:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
2/20/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 22IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
44%
Kyoto Sanga
model favours
31%26%44%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse31%
×Draw26%
Kyoto Sanga44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.20
Kyoto Sanga
1.49

Kyoto Sanga creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
Kyoto Sanga
1.39

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
Kyoto Sanga
1.25

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
56%
Shimizu S-pulse or Kyoto Sanga
74%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
69%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
13%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
70%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
34%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
12%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
77%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
44%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
41%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.39 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
31%
level
26%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
44%

Kyoto Sanga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Kyoto Sanga outscore their xG (1.5 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
50%Possession50%
79%Pass accuracy73%
12.6Shots11.1
1.27xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Draws
2
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
2–11–11–01–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shimizu S-pulse host Kyoto Sanga

February 20, 2027: Shimizu S-pulse take on Kyoto Sanga in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shimizu S-pulse host Kyoto Sanga at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.