Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

S. Yajima 75'

9/20/2025

J1 League · Round 30Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kyoto Sanga46%

×Draw25%

Shimizu S-pulse28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.15

Kyoto Sanga

1.54

Shimizu S-pulse

1.15

Kyoto Sanga creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.59

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.26

Shimizu S-pulse

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

72%

Kyoto Sanga or Shimizu S-pulse

75%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

54%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

23%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

79%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

45%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

20%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

68%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

32%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

62%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.59 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

46%

level

25%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

28%

Kyoto Sanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Umeda

Shimizu S-pulse

9.2

Match Events

10'

Toshiki TakahashiPenalty confirmed

27'

Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi

43'

Yoshinori Suzuki

46'

S. Takeda← Leo Gomes

63'

M. Okugawa← T. Matsuda

63'

S. Yajima← M. Yumiba

63'

K. Kitagawa← H. Nakahara

71'

F. Yamada← S. Nagasawa

71'

R. Nakano← T. Hirato

71'

S. Takagi← Y. Yoshida

71'

K. Kozuka← T. Inui

75'

S. Yajima↳ S. Takagi

77'

Joao Pedro← S. Fukuoka

85'

Sodai Hasukawa

90+2'

K. Chiba← T. Takahashi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KyotoShimizu

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots8

1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.20

7Corners2

13Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots8

8On Target4

5Off Target2

7Blocked2

9Inside Box5

11Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

426Total Passes313

335Accurate Passes210

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2