Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kyoto Sanga

K. Kitagawa 82' (pen)

Joao Pedro 67'

Rafael Elias 38' (pen)

3/16/2025

J1 League · Round 6IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse44%

×Draw24%

Kyoto Sanga33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.42

Shimizu S-pulse

1.68

Kyoto Sanga

1.42

Shimizu S-pulse creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.28

1.56

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.40

Kyoto Sanga

1.28

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.56

Kyoto Sanga

1.96

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.15scores less

Kyoto Sanga+0.72scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

67%

Shimizu S-pulse or Kyoto Sanga

76%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

56%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

23%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

81%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

50%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

24%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

76%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

41%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

57%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.56 · 20 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.40 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.28 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

44%

level

24%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

33%

Shimizu S-pulse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rafael Elias

Kyoto Sanga · F

8.2

Match Events

16'

H. Appiah Tawiah← Patrick William

38'

Rafael EliasPenalty

59'

Joao Pedro← T. Matsuda

59'

S. Kawasaki← T. Yonemoto

60'

Kyo Sato

67'

Joao Pedro↳ Rafael Elias

72'

K. Kozuka← M. Nishihara

72'

H. Nakahara← K. Miyamoto

77'

S. Hasukawa← K. Matsuzaki

82'

K. KitagawaPenalty

88'

Y. Miyamoto← Rafael Elias

88'

S. Hiraga← T. Hirato

90+2'

Sota Kawasaki

90'

João Pedro

90'

A. Ahmedov← Matheus Bueno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuKyoto

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots10

1.94Expected Goals (xG)2.22

5Corners5

9Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target5

6Blocked1

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

463Total Passes352

353Accurate Passes240

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls20

0Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0