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Shimizu S-pulse vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
8/27/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 27IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%
×Draw25%
Kyoto Sanga37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.48
Kyoto Sanga
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.32
Kyoto Sanga
1.28

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.58
Kyoto Sanga
1.65

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.35scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
63%
Shimizu S-pulse or Kyoto Sanga
75%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
19%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
77%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
43%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
19%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
76%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
42%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
51%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 22 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.32 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.28 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
39%
level
25%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
37%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Kyoto Sanga

Shimizu S-pulse beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J1 League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.