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Shimizu S-pulse vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
11:00
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
3/10/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
44%
Kawasaki Frontale
model favours
33%24%44%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse33%
×Draw24%
Kawasaki Frontale44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.44
Kawasaki Frontale
1.70

Kawasaki Frontale creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.54
Kawasaki Frontale
1.73

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.67
Kawasaki Frontale
1.34

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.16scores less
Kawasaki Frontale+0.47scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
56%
Shimizu S-pulse or Kawasaki Frontale
76%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
67%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
15%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
76%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
42%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
18%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
82%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
51%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
43%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.54 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.73 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
33%
level
24%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
44%

Kawasaki Frontale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kawasaki Frontale score first in only 31% of matches
  • 53% of Kawasaki Frontale’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 69% of Kawasaki Frontale’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5.2 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Kawasaki Frontale
Attack-heavy
50%Possession52%
79%Pass accuracy81%
13.3Shots13.9
1.35xGBiggest gap1.66
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseKawasaki Frontale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Draws
3
Kawasaki Frontale
Avg goals: 5.2BTTS: 80%
3–51–10–63–22–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Frontale
DLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shimizu S-pulse host Kawasaki Frontale

March 10, 2027: Shimizu S-pulse take on Kawasaki Frontale in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shimizu S-pulse host Kawasaki Frontale at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.