Kawasaki Frontale 5–3 Shimizu S-pulse

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Kawasaki Frontale

1.65

Shimizu S-pulse

1.36

Kawasaki Frontale creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.90

creates per match

0.93

1.79

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.90

Shimizu S-pulse

0.93

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.79

Shimizu S-pulse

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

68%

Kawasaki Frontale or Shimizu S-pulse

76%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

56%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

23%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

81%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

49%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

23%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

74%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

39%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

58%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.90 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.65

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.93 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

44%

level

24%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

32%

Kawasaki Frontale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Sasaki

Kawasaki Frontale · D

8.9

Match Events

4'

Y. Wakizaka↳ A. Sasaki

7'

A. Sasaki↳ S. van Wermeskerken

13'

37'

45'

46'

46'

K. Matsuzaki← K. Kozuka

46'

K. Kitagawa← T. Inui

46'

T. Takahashi↳ K. Matsuzaki

54'

Erison

58'

T. Miyagi← Marcinho

58'

Y. Kobayashi← Erison

68'

S. Yajima← Z. Uno

69'

S. Kawahara

78'

A. Stephens← Y. Yoshida

81'

R. Kamihashi← Jesiel

81'

K. Tachibanada← T. Ito

86'

Koya KitagawaPenalty cancelled

90'

Alfredo StephensPenalty confirmed

90+8'

Y. Ozeki← S. Tanabe

90'

K. KitagawaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiShimizu

Overview

41%Possession59%

19Total Shots17

2.12Expected Goals (xG)2.73

4Corners4

15Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots17

9On Target4

5Off Target9

5Blocked4

16Inside Box11

3Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

384Total Passes539

297Accurate Passes454

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2