Kawasaki Frontale 3–2 Shimizu S-pulse

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

Y. Kobayashi 78'

K. Yamamura 75'

D. Tono 28'

Carlinhos Júnior 57'

R. Shirasaki 49'

10/8/2022

J1 League · Round 32Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale43%

×Draw25%

Shimizu S-pulse33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.33

Kawasaki Frontale

1.56

Shimizu S-pulse

1.33

Kawasaki Frontale creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

1.60

creates per match

1.03

1.64

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.60

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.64

Shimizu S-pulse

1.52

+1.00scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+1.00scores more

Shimizu S-pulse-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

67%

Kawasaki Frontale or Shimizu S-pulse

75%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

57%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

21%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

79%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

46%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

21%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

74%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

38%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

57%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.64 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.60 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

43%

level

25%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

33%

Kawasaki Frontale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Kobayashi

Kawasaki Frontale · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

D. Tono

46'

T. Ōkubo← S. Gonda

49'

R. Shirasaki↳ Carlinhos Júnior

54'

João Schmidt

57'

Carlinhos Júnior↳ R. Yamahara

60'

K. Chinen← D. Tono

66'

Yago Pikachu← K. Nakayama

71'

T. Inui← Carlinhos Júnior

75'

K. Yamamura↳ Y. Wakizaka

78'

Y. Kobayashi↳ Marcinho

80'

B. Kololli← Thiago Santana

80'

Y. Suzuki← K. Kitagawa

87'

T. Miyagi← Y. Kobayashi

90+1'

K. Kozuka← K. Chinen

90+1'

A. Sasaki← K. Noborizato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiShimizu

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots9

4Corners5

11Fouls4

Shots

16Total Shots9

7On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

689Total Passes380

631Accurate Passes322

92%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1

J1 League: Kawasaki Frontale 3–2 Shimizu S-pulse

Kawasaki Frontale beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-2 in J1 League on October 8, 2022.

Goals: D. Tono (28'), R. Shirasaki (49'), Carlinhos Júnior (57'), K. Yamamura (75'), Y. Kobayashi (78').

Kawasaki Frontale controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Kawasaki Frontale 3–2 Shimizu S-pulse