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Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashima — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
11:00
Kashima
Kashima
3/21/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 27IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
46%
Kashima
model favours
28%26%46%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse28%
×Draw26%
Kashima46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.13
Kashima
1.52

Kashima creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.31
Kashima
1.59

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.46
Kashima
0.94

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Kashima+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
54%
Shimizu S-pulse or Kashima
74%
Draw or Kashima
72%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
11%
Kashima wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
68%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
31%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
11%
Kashima 1+ goals
78%
Kashima 2+ goals
45%
Kashima 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
38%
Kashima (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.31 + Kashima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kashima attack 1.59 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
28%
level
26%
Kashima scores more
46%

Kashima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashima score first in only 21% of matches
  • Kashima have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Kashima
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Kashima (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Kashima. Match starts March 21, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Kashima at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.