Kashima 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

A. Ueda 90+3'

Y. Suzuki 78'

B. Kololli 70'

4/2/2022

J1 League · Round 6Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kashima56%

×Draw25%

Shimizu S-pulse19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.83

Kashima

1.60

Shimizu S-pulse

0.83

Kashima creates 93% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

1.70

creates per match

1.03

0.64

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kashima

1.70

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Kashima

0.64

Shimizu S-pulse

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

81%

Kashima or Shimizu S-pulse

75%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

44%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

30%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

80%

Kashima 2+ goals

47%

Kashima 3+ goals

22%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

56%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

20%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

74%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.64 · 33 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.70 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Kashima defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kashima scores more

56%

level

25%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

19%

Kashima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Y. Higuchi

Kashima · M

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Diego Pituca

49'

Yuma SuzukiGoal cancelled

56'

Diego Pituca

56'

Benjamin Kololli

63'

A. Ueda← Diego Pituca

63'

Y. Matsumura← H. Nakama

63'

Y. Goto← Yuito Suzuki

70'

B. Kololli↳ R. Yamahara

77'

Arthur Caíke← Juan Alano

78'

Y. Suzuki↳ Y. Matsumura

82'

K. Nakayama← Y. Kamiya

82'

Ronaldo← R. Shirasaki

89'

R. Araki← R. Izumi

90+8'

Ryotaro Araki

90+6'

D. Takahashi← E. Katayama

90+3'

A. Ueda↳ Y. Suzuki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashimaShimizu

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots9

9Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots9

9On Target2

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

10Inside Box3

11Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

408Total Passes321

301Accurate Passes202

74%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0