Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Kashima: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kashima

T. Takahashi 20'

N. Ueda 75'

8/31/2025

J1 League · Round 28IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse25%

×Draw25%

Kashima50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchKashima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.59

Shimizu S-pulse

1.04

Kashima

1.59

Kashima creates 53% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

1.21

creates per match

1.65

1.54

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.21

Kashima

1.65

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.54

Kashima

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Kashima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Kashima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

50%

Shimizu S-pulse or Kashima

75%

Draw or Kashima

75%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

9%

Kashima wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

65%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

28%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

9%

Kashima 1+ goals

80%

Kashima 2+ goals

47%

Kashima 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

33%

Kashima (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.21 + Kashima defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kashima attack 1.65 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

25%

level

25%

Kashima scores more

50%

Kashima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Y. Suzuki

Kashima · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

T. Takahashi↳ K. Matsuzaki

46'

Y. Matsumura← A. Cavric

52'

Takashi Inui

57'

S. Yajima← K. Miyamoto

70'

K. Kitazume← Y. Yoshida

70'

K. Kitagawa← K. Matsuzaki

72'

Y. Funabashi← K. Chinen

72'

S. Mizoguchi← R. Ogawa

72'

K. Tagawa← Leo Ceara

75'

N. Ueda↳ Y. Funabashi

76'

Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi

81'

K. Kozuka← T. Inui

81'

K. Chiba← T. Takahashi

86'

K. Nono← Elber

88'

Kazuki Kozuka

90+1'

Koya Kitagawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuKashima

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots17

1.70Expected Goals (xG)2.00

2Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots17

6On Target5

4Off Target9

0Blocked3

6Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

345Total Passes676

274Accurate Passes593

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls8

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0