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Shimizu S-pulse vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
3/2/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse61%
×Draw22%
Ehime FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.83
Ehime FC
0.81

Shimizu S-pulse creates 126% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 123 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
2.02
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
0.64
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
84%
Shimizu S-pulse or Ehime FC
78%
Draw or Ehime FC
39%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
36%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
84%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
54%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
28%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
56%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
19%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
79%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
61%
level
22%
Ehime FC scores more
16%

Shimizu S-pulse at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Shimizu S-pulse 2–0 Ehime FC

Shimizu S-pulse beat Ehime FC 2-0 in J2 League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.