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Ehime FC vs Shimizu S-pulse — J2 League 2018

Ehime FC
Ehime FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
6/16/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 20Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ehime FC25%
×Draw25%
Shimizu S-pulse50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehime FC
1.04
Shimizu S-pulse
1.57

Shimizu S-pulse creates 51% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ehime FC
0.92
Shimizu S-pulse
1.63

allows per match

Ehime FC
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
1.16

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw
50%
Ehime FC or Shimizu S-pulse
75%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
75%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+
9%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals
65%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
28%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
9%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
79%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
46%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)
34%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ehime FC scores more
25%
level
25%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
50%

Shimizu S-pulse at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ehime FC vs Shimizu S-pulse

Ehime FC beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-0 in J2 League on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Ningineer Stadium in Matsuyama.