Shimizu S-pulse 1–4 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Cerezo Osaka

T. Inui 84'

K. Furuyama 90'

Rafael Ratao 42', 3'

Vitor Bueno 11'

11/9/2025

J1 League · Round 36IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse40%

×Draw22%

Cerezo Osaka38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.77

Shimizu S-pulse

1.81

Cerezo Osaka

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.53

creates per match

1.83

1.70

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.53

Cerezo Osaka

1.83

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.70

Cerezo Osaka

2.10

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.20scores less

Cerezo Osaka+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

62%

Shimizu S-pulse or Cerezo Osaka

78%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

60%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

21%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

84%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

54%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

27%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

83%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

53%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

51%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.10 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.53 + Cerezo Osaka defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.83 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

40%

level

22%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

38%

Shimizu S-pulse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rafael Ratao

Cerezo Osaka · F

8.6

Match Events

3'

Rafael Ratao

11'

Vitor Bueno

27'

Y. Yoshida← S. Takagi

27'

S. Yajima← Y. Shimamoto

42'

Rafael Ratao↳ Thiago Andrade

46'

T. Inui← K. Matsuzaki

56'

S. Tanaka← Vitor Bueno

66'

Rafael Ratão

66'

Hayato Okuda

70'

A. Stephens← K. Kitagawa

77'

H. Nakahara← Capixaba

77'

K. Furuyama← Rafael Ratao

78'

D. Cools← Thiago Andrade

84'

T. Inui↳ T. Takahashi

90+2'

R. Inoue← M. Shibayama

90+1'

S. Kagawa← H. Okuda

90'

K. Furuyama↳ D. Cools

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuCerezo

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots15

2.44Expected Goals (xG)3.31

9Corners2

11Fouls6

Shots

22Total Shots15

8On Target6

7Off Target5

7Blocked4

15Inside Box10

7Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

651Total Passes404

600Accurate Passes337

92%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2