Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Cerezo Osaka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shimizu S-pulse

K. Funaki 76'

M. Jonjić 34' (OG)

6/26/2022

J1 League · Round 18Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cerezo Osaka50%

×Draw24%

Shimizu S-pulse26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerezo OsakaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.17

Cerezo Osaka

1.71

Shimizu S-pulse

1.17

Cerezo Osaka creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

1.91

creates per match

1.03

1.31

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.91

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.31

Shimizu S-pulse

1.52

+0.89scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.89scores more

Shimizu S-pulse-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw

74%

Cerezo Osaka or Shimizu S-pulse

76%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

50%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

27%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

82%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

51%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

24%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

69%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

33%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

66%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.91 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more

50%

level

24%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

26%

Cerezo Osaka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Gonda

Shimizu S-pulse · G

7.9

Match Events

19'

Thiago Santana

20'

M. Kato← H. Kiyotake

34'

M. JonjićOwn goal

46'

K. Funaki← R. Nishio

67'

D. Matsuoka← Y. Goto

67'

Carlinhos Júnior← Y. Kamiya

70'

Jean Patric← H. Tameda

70'

A. Taggart← Bruno Mendes

76'

K. Funaki↳ T. Suzuki

79'

B. Kololli← Thiago Santana

79'

A. Disaro← R. Shirasaki

84'

H. Nakahara← S. Maikuma

90+4'

T. Hara← K. Nishizawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CerezoShimizu

Overview

55%Possession45%

23Total Shots4

9Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots4

8On Target1

8Off Target1

7Blocked2

13Inside Box2

10Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

457Total Passes391

391Accurate Passes319

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1