Shillong Lajong 1–1 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats

Shillong Lajong

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Kashmir

3/13/2024

I-League · Round 21SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shillong Lajong50%

×Draw24%

Real Kashmir26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shillong LajongExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.13

Shillong Lajong

1.68

Real Kashmir

1.13

Shillong Lajong creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

2.20

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shillong Lajong

2.20

Real Kashmir

1.12

allows per match

Shillong Lajong

1.13

Real Kashmir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw

74%

Shillong Lajong or Real Kashmir

76%

Draw or Real Kashmir

50%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+

27%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals

81%

Shillong Lajong 2+ goals

50%

Shillong Lajong 3+ goals

24%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

68%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

31%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)

66%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more

50%

level

24%

Real Kashmir scores more

26%

Shillong Lajong at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Real Kashmir

Shillong Lajong and Real Kashmir drew 1-1 in I-League on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.

Shillong Lajong vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Real Kashmir