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Real Kashmir vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
12/16/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 11TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Kashmir49%
×Draw23%
Shillong Lajong28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.81
Shillong Lajong
1.31

Real Kashmir creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.62
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.16
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
72%
Real Kashmir or Shillong Lajong
77%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
51%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
27%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
84%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
54%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
27%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
73%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
38%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
64%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.62 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Real Kashmir defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
49%
level
23%
Shillong Lajong scores more
28%

Real Kashmir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Real Kashmir 3–1 Shillong Lajong

Real Kashmir beat Shillong Lajong 3-1 in I-League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir.