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Shillong Lajong vs Namdhari — I-League 2019

Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Namdhari
Namdhari
2/8/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 13SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shillong Lajong53%
×Draw23%
Namdhari24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shillong Lajong
1.87
Namdhari
1.20

Shillong Lajong creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shillong Lajong
2.20
Namdhari
1.27

allows per match

Shillong Lajong
1.13
Namdhari
1.53

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par
Namdhari+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Namdhari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw
76%
Shillong Lajong or Namdhari
77%
Draw or Namdhari
47%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
30%
Namdhari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
85%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
56%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
29%
Namdhari 1+ goals
70%
Namdhari 2+ goals
34%
Namdhari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
68%
Namdhari (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Namdhari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Namdhari defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.87

Namdhari attack 1.27 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more
53%
level
23%
Namdhari scores more
24%

Shillong Lajong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Namdhari

Shillong Lajong beat Namdhari 3-2 in I-League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.