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Namdhari vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Namdhari
Namdhari
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
1/25/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 10Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Namdhari42%
×Draw24%
Shillong Lajong34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namdhari
1.66
Shillong Lajong
1.48

Namdhari creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

creates per match

Namdhari
1.32
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Namdhari
1.50
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw
66%
Namdhari or Shillong Lajong
76%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
58%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+
22%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals
81%
Namdhari 2+ goals
49%
Namdhari 3+ goals
23%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
77%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
43%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)
55%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Namdhari scores more
42%
level
24%
Shillong Lajong scores more
34%

Namdhari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Namdhari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namdhari vs Shillong Lajong

Namdhari beat Shillong Lajong 5-2 in I-League on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.