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Shillong Lajong vs Mohammedan — I-League 2019

Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mohammedan
Mohammedan
4/6/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 25SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shillong Lajong46%
×Draw24%
Mohammedan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shillong Lajong
1.64
Mohammedan
1.25

Shillong Lajong creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

creates per match

Shillong Lajong
2.20
Mohammedan
1.37

allows per match

Shillong Lajong
1.13
Mohammedan
1.08

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par
Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Mohammedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw
71%
Shillong Lajong or Mohammedan
76%
Draw or Mohammedan
54%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
24%
Mohammedan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
81%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
49%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
23%
Mohammedan 1+ goals
71%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
36%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
61%
Mohammedan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Mohammedan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mohammedan attack 1.37 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more
46%
level
24%
Mohammedan scores more
29%

Shillong Lajong at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Mohammedan

Mohammedan beat Shillong Lajong 2-1 in I-League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.