Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mohammedan vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Mohammedan
Mohammedan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
11/3/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 2Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mohammedan50%
×Draw22%
Shillong Lajong28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan
1.95
Shillong Lajong
1.40

Mohammedan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mohammedan
1.90
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Mohammedan
1.32
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw
72%
Mohammedan or Shillong Lajong
78%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
50%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+
29%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals
86%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
58%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
31%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
75%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
41%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)
64%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 1.90 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Mohammedan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mohammedan scores more
50%
level
22%
Shillong Lajong scores more
28%

Mohammedan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Mohammedan 1–1 Shillong Lajong

Mohammedan and Shillong Lajong drew 1-1 in I-League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Naihati Stadium in Naihati.