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Shillong Lajong vs Inter Kashi — I-League 2019

Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
12/5/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 3SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shillong Lajong51%
×Draw23%
Inter Kashi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shillong Lajong
1.86
Inter Kashi
1.26

Shillong Lajong creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

creates per match

Shillong Lajong
2.20
Inter Kashi
1.39

allows per match

Shillong Lajong
1.13
Inter Kashi
1.52

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par
Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Inter Kashi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw
74%
Shillong Lajong or Inter Kashi
77%
Draw or Inter Kashi
49%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
29%
Inter Kashi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
84%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
55%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
28%
Inter Kashi 1+ goals
72%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
36%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
66%
Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Inter Kashi away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Inter Kashi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.86

Inter Kashi attack 1.39 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more
51%
level
23%
Inter Kashi scores more
26%

Shillong Lajong at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Inter Kashi

Shillong Lajong and Inter Kashi drew 0-0 in I-League on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.