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Inter Kashi vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
3/24/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 20Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi51%
×Draw21%
Shillong Lajong28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Kashi
2.17
Shillong Lajong
1.58

Inter Kashi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

Inter Kashi
2.35
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Inter Kashi
1.70
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw
72%
Inter Kashi or Shillong Lajong
79%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
49%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+
30%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals
89%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
64%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
36%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
79%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
47%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
64%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Kashi scores more
51%
level
21%
Shillong Lajong scores more
28%

Inter Kashi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Kashi vs Shillong Lajong

Inter Kashi beat Shillong Lajong 2-1 in I-League on March 24, 2025.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.