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Shillong Lajong vs Gokulam — I-League 2019

Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gokulam
Gokulam
12/14/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 5SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shillong Lajong45%
×Draw24%
Gokulam32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shillong Lajong
1.71
Gokulam
1.40

Shillong Lajong creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 65 away

creates per match

Shillong Lajong
2.20
Gokulam
1.66

allows per match

Shillong Lajong
1.13
Gokulam
1.22

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par
Gokulam+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Gokulam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw
68%
Shillong Lajong or Gokulam
76%
Draw or Gokulam
55%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
24%
Gokulam wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
82%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
51%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
24%
Gokulam 1+ goals
75%
Gokulam 2+ goals
41%
Gokulam 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
59%
Gokulam (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Gokulam away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.22 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Gokulam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gokulam attack 1.66 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more
45%
level
24%
Gokulam scores more
32%

Shillong Lajong at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Gokulam

Shillong Lajong and Gokulam drew 0-0 in I-League on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.