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Gokulam vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Gokulam
Gokulam
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
3/3/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 17EMS Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gokulam53%
×Draw22%
Shillong Lajong25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gokulam
1.99
Shillong Lajong
1.32

Gokulam creates 51% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gokulam
1.98
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Gokulam
1.18
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Gokulam+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gokulam ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gokulam or draw
75%
Gokulam or Shillong Lajong
78%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
47%

Winning margin

Gokulam wins by 2+
31%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gokulam 1+ goals
86%
Gokulam 2+ goals
59%
Gokulam 3+ goals
32%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
73%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
38%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gokulam (draw refunded)
68%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gokulam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.18 · 65 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gokulam attack 1.98 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.99

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Gokulam defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gokulam scores more
53%
level
22%
Shillong Lajong scores more
25%

Gokulam at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gokulam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gokulam vs Shillong Lajong

Shillong Lajong beat Gokulam 4-3 in I-League on March 3, 2025.

The match was played at EMS Stadium in Calicut, Kerala.