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Shillong Lajong vs Delhi FC — I-League 2019

Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Delhi FC
Delhi FC
4/5/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 22SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shillong Lajong53%
×Draw21%
Delhi FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shillong Lajong
2.08
Delhi FC
1.39

Shillong Lajong creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

creates per match

Shillong Lajong
2.20
Delhi FC
1.65

allows per match

Shillong Lajong
1.13
Delhi FC
1.96

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par
Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Delhi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw
74%
Shillong Lajong or Delhi FC
79%
Draw or Delhi FC
47%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
31%
Delhi FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
87%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
61%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
34%
Delhi FC 1+ goals
75%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
40%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
68%
Delhi FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.08

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more
53%
level
21%
Delhi FC scores more
26%

Shillong Lajong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shillong Lajong vs Delhi FC

Shillong Lajong and Delhi FC drew 0-0 in I-League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.