Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Delhi FC vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Delhi FC
Delhi FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
3/28/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 24Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Delhi FC38%
×Draw24%
Shillong Lajong38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delhi FC
1.58
Shillong Lajong
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

Delhi FC
1.17
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Delhi FC
1.70
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Delhi FC+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delhi FC ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Delhi FC or draw
62%
Delhi FC or Shillong Lajong
76%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
62%

Winning margin

Delhi FC wins by 2+
19%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Delhi FC 1+ goals
79%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
47%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
21%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
79%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
47%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Delhi FC (draw refunded)
50%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delhi FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delhi FC attack 1.17 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Delhi FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delhi FC scores more
38%
level
24%
Shillong Lajong scores more
38%

Delhi FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delhi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delhi FC vs Shillong Lajong

Delhi FC beat Shillong Lajong 3-1 in I-League on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.