Shillong Lajong 3–2 Churchill Brothers

Shillong Lajong

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Churchill Brothers

Naorem Mahesh Singh 83'

S. Kynshi 45' (pen), 36'

A. Wolfe 71'

W. Plaza 53'

2/5/2019

I-League · Round 17Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium (Shillong, Meghalaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Shillong Lajong48%

×Draw23%

Churchill Brothers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shillong LajongExpected goals in this matchChurchill Brothers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.32

Shillong Lajong

1.79

Churchill Brothers

1.32

Shillong Lajong creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 61 away

2.23

creates per match

1.49

1.16

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Shillong Lajong

2.23

Churchill Brothers

1.49

allows per match

Shillong Lajong

1.16

Churchill Brothers

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Churchill Brothers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Churchill Brothers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw

72%

Shillong Lajong or Churchill Brothers

77%

Draw or Churchill Brothers

52%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+

26%

Churchill Brothers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals

83%

Shillong Lajong 2+ goals

53%

Shillong Lajong 3+ goals

26%

Churchill Brothers 1+ goals

73%

Churchill Brothers 2+ goals

38%

Churchill Brothers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)

63%

Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Churchill Brothers away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.23 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.79

Churchill Brothers attack 1.49 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more

48%

level

23%

Churchill Brothers scores more

28%

Shillong Lajong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Wolfe← C. Lyngdoh

36'

S. Kynshi↳ Naorem Mahesh Singh

45'

S. KynshiPenalty

46'

S. Lalmuanpuia← P. Buam

53'

N. Novaković← C. Lobo

53'

W. Plaza↳ N. Fernandes

71'

A. Wolfe↳ N. Fernandes

77'

I. Gurung← N. Fernandes

81'

K. Khongsit← S. Kynshi

83'

Naorem Mahesh Singh

90'

S. Sohktung← K. Pale

Shillong

Churchill

1

2

37

4

5

36

▼

Lobo

10

Ceesay

33

Costa

23

A

▼

Fernandes

34

▼

Lyngdoh

9

⚽

1

2

27

35

8

15

12

⚽2

▼

Kynshi

4

Lalrohlua

14

▼

Buam

10

▼

Pale

13

⚽A

Singh

Manager: A. Kharsyntiew

46'▲S. Lalmuanpuia←▼P. Buam

81'▲K. Khongsit←▼S. Kynshi

90'▲S. Sohktung←▼K. Pale

Shillong Lajong substitutes

9Lalmuanpuia6Khongsit7Sohktung18Lalenkima30Wahlang32Chalieu33Lyngdoh

Manager: P. Gigiu

23'▲A. Wolfe←▼C. Lyngdoh

53'▲N. Novaković←▼C. Lobo

77'▲I. Gurung←▼N. Fernandes

Churchill Brothers substitutes

46Wolfe26Novaković14Gurung11Rai12Fernandes25Bhutia32Hangshing