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Shillong Lajong vs Churchill Brothers — I-League 2019

Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Churchill Brothers
Churchill Brothers
12/6/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 9SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shillong Lajong48%
×Draw23%
Churchill Brothers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shillong Lajong
1.76
Churchill Brothers
1.30

Shillong Lajong creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

creates per match

Shillong Lajong
2.20
Churchill Brothers
1.48

allows per match

Shillong Lajong
1.13
Churchill Brothers
1.31

finishing

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par
Churchill Brothers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shillong Lajong ↓

Churchill Brothers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shillong Lajong or draw
72%
Shillong Lajong or Churchill Brothers
77%
Draw or Churchill Brothers
52%

Winning margin

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
26%
Churchill Brothers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
83%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
52%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
26%
Churchill Brothers 1+ goals
73%
Churchill Brothers 2+ goals
37%
Churchill Brothers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
63%
Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shillong Lajong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Churchill Brothers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shillong Lajong attack 2.20 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.76

Churchill Brothers attack 1.48 + Shillong Lajong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shillong Lajong scores more
48%
level
23%
Churchill Brothers scores more
28%

Shillong Lajong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shillong Lajong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Shillong Lajong 2–0 Churchill Brothers

Shillong Lajong beat Churchill Brothers 2-0 in I-League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at SSA Ground No. 1 in Shillong, Meghalaya.