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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
6/4/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Cangzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.32%
×Draw27%
Shanghai Shenhua42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua
1.38

Shanghai Shenhua creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 119 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Shanghai Shenhua
1.43

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua
1.23

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
58%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shanghai Shenhua
73%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
68%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
13%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
69%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
32%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
11%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
75%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
40%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
43%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
32%
level
27%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
42%

Shanghai Shenhua at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 in Super League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Cangzhou Stadium in Cangzhou.