Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0–2 Shanghai Shenhua

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shanghai Shenhua

1/7/2023

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsSuzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.31%

×Draw23%

Shanghai Shenhua46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.85

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.50

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

Shanghai Shenhua creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

2.40

creates per match

2.11

1.60

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.40

Shanghai Shenhua

2.11

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.60

Shanghai Shenhua

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

54%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shanghai Shenhua

77%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

69%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

15%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

78%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

44%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

19%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

84%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

55%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

41%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 2.40 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.11 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

31%

level

23%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

46%

Shanghai Shenhua at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff