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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
4/21/2019League OneLeague One · Round 6Hebei Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.43%
×Draw25%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.49
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.23

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 57 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.93
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.03
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
69%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
75%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
57%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
21%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
77%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
44%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
19%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
71%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
35%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
58%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
43%
level
25%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
31%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 5-0 in League One on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Hebei Olympic Sports Center in Shijiazhuang.