Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3–4 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

O. Maritu 50', 42'

Zou You 33'

Muriqui 82'

Matheus Nascimento 59', 45+3'

Liu Xinyu 58'

8/10/2019

League One · Round 21Weinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic45%

×Draw25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi Changan AthleticExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.20

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.52

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.20

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

1.46

creates per match

1.47

0.93

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.46

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.47

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.93

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw

70%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

75%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

55%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

78%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

45%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

20%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

70%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

34%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

60%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

45%

level

25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

30%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Huang Pu← Xu Xu

33'

Zou You

42'

O. Maritu

45+3'

Matheus Nascimento

46'

Zhan Minwei← Zang Yifeng

50'

O. Maritu

56'

Liu Xinyu← Liu Ziming

58'

Liu Xinyu

59'

Matheus Nascimento

62'

Wang Erzhuo← Yang Hao

82'

Muriqui

87'

Ezimjan Erpan← Huang Pu

89'

Zhong Jiyu← Muriqui

Shaanxi

Shijiazhuang

12

24

2

4

41

17

10

⚽2

Nasciment

11

⚽

▼

Muriqui

7

▼

Yifeng

27

▼

23

1

3

25

19

▼

Hao

6

Feng

5

⚽

14

30

24

36

▼

Xu

10

⚽2

Maritu

Manager: Wang Bo

27'▲Huang Pu←▼Xu Xu

62'▲Wang Erzhuo←▼Yang Hao

87'▲Ezimjan Erpan←▼Huang Pu

Shaanxi Changan Athletic substitutes

17Pu13Erzhuo37Erpan7Da11Shuo27Wu29Zhenyu

Manager: A. Ghotbi

46'▲Zhan Minwei←▼Zang Yifeng

56'▲Liu Xinyu←▼Liu Ziming

89'▲Zhong Jiyu←▼Muriqui

Shijiazhuang Y. J. substitutes

28Minwei20Xinyu22Jiyu13Shaoshun16Zhe29Yinuo33Shihao