Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3–2 Qingdao Youth Island

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Qingdao Youth Island

4/14/2024

Super League · Round 6Cangzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.43%

×Draw25%

Qingdao Youth Island32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchQingdao Youth Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.50

Qingdao Youth Island

1.25

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 20% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 39 away

1.09

creates per match

1.18

1.32

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.09

Qingdao Youth Island

1.18

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.32

Qingdao Youth Island

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

68%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Qingdao Youth Island

75%

Draw or Qingdao Youth Island

57%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

21%

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

78%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

44%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

19%

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

71%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

36%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

58%

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.18 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

43%

level

25%

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

32%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff