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Qingdao Youth Island vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
8/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island47%
×Draw23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.75
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.33

Qingdao Youth Island creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 68 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.44
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.41
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
71%
Qingdao Youth Island or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
77%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
53%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
83%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
52%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
74%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
38%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
62%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.44 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
47%
level
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
29%

Qingdao Youth Island at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Qingdao Youth Island and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 1-1 in Super League on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Qingdao.