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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
6/16/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Cangzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.47%
×Draw26%
Qingdao Jonoon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.49
Qingdao Jonoon
1.06

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 54 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Qingdao Jonoon
0.80

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Qingdao Jonoon
1.89

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
73%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Qingdao Jonoon
74%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
53%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
23%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
77%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
44%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
19%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
65%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
29%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
64%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.89 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.49

Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.80 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
47%
level
26%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
27%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 in Super League on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Cangzhou Stadium in Cangzhou.