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Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
11/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon48%
×Draw23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
1.80
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.34

Qingdao Jonoon creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 68 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.54
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.43
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
71%
Qingdao Jonoon or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
77%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
52%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
26%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
83%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
54%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
27%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
74%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
39%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
63%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 54 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.54 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
48%
level
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
29%

Qingdao Jonoon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qingdao Jonoon 1–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Qingdao Jonoon beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 in Super League on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Qingdao.