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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
4/22/2018League OneLeague One · Round 7Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.56%
×Draw22%
liaoning hongyun FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.90
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 73% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.93
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.10
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
78%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or liaoning hongyun FC
78%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
44%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
32%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
85%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
56%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
29%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
67%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
30%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
72%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.90

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
56%
level
22%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2–2 liaoning hongyun FC

Shijiazhuang Y. J. and liaoning hongyun FC drew 2-2 in League One on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang).