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liaoning hongyun FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
8/24/2019League OneLeague One · Round 23Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC35%
×Draw25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.37
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.47

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.57

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
60%
liaoning hongyun FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
75%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
65%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
16%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
75%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
40%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
16%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
77%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
43%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
47%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
35%
level
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
40%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: liaoning hongyun FC 0–2 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat liaoning hongyun FC 2-0 in League One on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.