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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
5/18/2019League OneLeague One · Round 10Hebei Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.51%
×Draw24%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.67
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 55% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 124 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.93
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.03
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
75%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
76%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
49%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
81%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
50%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
23%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
66%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
67%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
51%
level
24%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-0 in League One on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Hebei Olympic Sports Center in Shijiazhuang.