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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
9/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 25Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring44%
×Draw25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.54
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.27

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 21% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 28 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.47
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.46

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.61

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
69%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
75%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
56%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
22%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
79%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
45%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
72%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
36%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
58%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.08 · 121 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.47 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.46 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
44%
level
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
31%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-2 in League One on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.