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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
3 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
12/27/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.51%
×Draw24%
Hebei Zhongji25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.71
Hebei Zhongji
1.13

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 51% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
75%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Hebei Zhongji
76%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
49%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
27%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
82%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
51%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
24%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
68%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
31%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
67%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
51%
level
24%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3–0 Hebei Zhongji

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Hebei Zhongji 3-0 in Super League on December 27, 2022.

The match was played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 in Haikou.