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Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
7/26/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hebei Zhongji40%
×Draw23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Zhongji
1.64
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.90
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw
63%
Hebei Zhongji or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
77%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
60%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
81%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
49%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
79%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
46%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
52%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more
40%
level
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
37%

Hebei Zhongji at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hebei Zhongji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 2-2 in Super League on July 26, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Suzhou.