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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — FA Cup 2019

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
12/18/2022FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundMission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.47%
×Draw21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.20
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.80

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.40
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.60
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
68%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
79%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
53%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
28%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
89%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
64%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
37%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
54%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
59%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 2.40 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.00 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
47%
level
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
32%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-1 in FA Cup on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.