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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
5/9/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.28%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.18
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.58

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
53%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
75%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
72%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
12%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
69%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
33%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
12%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
79%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
47%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
38%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
28%
level
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
47%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 in Super League on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Canton.