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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
8/4/2019League OneLeague One · Round 20Hebei Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.53%
×Draw24%
Beijing Baxy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.75
Beijing Baxy
1.06

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 70 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.93
Beijing Baxy
1.09

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.03
Beijing Baxy
1.57

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
77%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Beijing Baxy
76%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
47%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
30%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
83%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
52%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
25%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
65%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
70%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.93 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Beijing Baxy attack 1.09 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
53%
level
24%
Beijing Baxy scores more
23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5-0 in League One on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Hebei Olympic Sports Center in Shijiazhuang.