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Beijing Baxy vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
4/13/2019League OneLeague One · Round 5Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Beijing Baxy42%
×Draw25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.49
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.30

Beijing Baxy creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 28 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.37
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.46

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.14
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.61

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
67%
Beijing Baxy or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
75%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
58%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
44%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
19%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
73%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
37%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
56%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.37 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.46 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
42%
level
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
33%

Beijing Baxy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Beijing Baxy beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 in League One on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Beijing.